Saturday, March 3, 2012

First District Attorney Election Poll is bad news for Nuch

Unofficial polling for the June 5, 2012 primary election for LA's next District Attorney shows Los Angeles City Attorney Carmen 'Nuch' Trutanich failing to achieve even 40% of votes cast and far less than the 50% plus one needed to clinch the election at the primary.

Activist blogger/journalist Joesph Mailander's Tweet on Friday night
suggests that a rumored Big Labor poll shows Trutanich far from the comfort zone.
The result of the poll, rumored to have been conducted by an organized labor group, was leaked on Twitter by respected journalist turned activist blogger Joseph Mailander, aka 'Mulholland Terrace,' the man who first gave Trutanich his loathed moniker 'Carmen the Clown.'

The poll was likely used to justify the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor AFL-CIO's endorsement of Trutanich and probably was conducted before the latest in a series of scandals shook the foundations of the City Attorney's bid to become DA. Those scandals concerned Trutanich's false claims of police endorsements, his illegal 'Sheriff Baca in uniform' endorsement,  the 'Carmen the Barbarian' cover story in last issue of LA Weekly, and of course, KFI AM640 talk show hosts John and Ken pulling their support of Trutanich.

Trutanich's campaign is also understood to be under investigation for other misconduct consistent with his record of lies, deceit and deception. Once these become public it will likely further weaken the former ambulance chaser slip and fall lawyer turned career politician's electability.

The leaked poll results appear to be consistent with an anonymous tip received by the Dragnet last week indicating that Alan Jackson's lock on republican support places him within 2 points of Trutanich, with Jackie Lacey and Mario Trujillo splitting democratic partisan support.

The unofficial poll shows Trutanich holding a slender lead
despite a slew of endorsements and an enviable campaign warchest.
The anonymous tip stated that polling done to support 'an endorsement by an organized labor group' yielded the following results:

28% Carmen Trutanich
26% Alan Jackson
19% Mario Trujillo
21% Jackie Lacey
3% Danette Meyers
2% Steve Ipsen
1% Bobby Grace

Trutanich has a campaign warchest topping his closest rivals by a margin of 2 to 1, however, his lead in the polls is nothing like 2 to 1, and well within a margin of error that could see any one of the three closest challengers facing him in a run off election where any lead he has could easily be overcome by the combination of anti-Trutanich sentiment.

Ironically and perhaps tellingly, Trutanich's position in this early poll mirrors the way 2009 City Attorney favorite Jack Weiss was soundly removed from political life. Weiss placed highest in the City Attorney primary leading his closest rival (Trutanich) by ten points. However, in the run off election, Weiss lost by a massive 12 point margin.

Many see Trutanich as being in an identical situation to Weiss; well funded, endorsed by significant special interests, and permanently dogged by scandals that go to the root of the public's mistrust of unethical career politicians.

Trutanich faces a total of seven challengers to his bid to become DA, with an eighth candidate rumored to be considering run. The size of the field, coupled with significant fundraising by the top three challengers, makes a November run off election inevitable now that the polls show considerable voter resistance to Trutanich.

March 9 is the last date for nominating papers to be filed at the LA County Registrar's Office. As we go to press, 5 candidates have filed according to the Registrar's website; John Breault III, Alan Jackson, Jackie Lacey, Danette Meyers and Carmen Trutanich. Mario Trujillo is expected to file this week, however, the filing intentions of Bobby Grace and Steve Ipsen are unclear. 

Ipsen, who has raised the least amount of campaign donations, is likely to be hugely disappointed with the way organized labor rejected his candidacy after all the effort he put into unionizing the DA's Office. The slap in the face that Ipsen received from AFL-CIO, who apparently had little regard for Ipsen's dedication to unionization, will likely cause a rift between the ADDA and AFSCME that could lead to decertification, according to sources.



Anonymous said...

There is no possible way Lacey is going to get more votes than Trujillo or Meyers. I used to support Lacey, but the black Community is now behind Danette and repulsed at the Lacey has followed Cooley around like a little puppy. Your fake polling is so far off that even I can make a chart like this on Powerpoint. Please...

Anonymous said...

This fake poll you have posted is as big of a lie as Trutanich's YouTube video hits. Come on Dragnet, stop with the support of the Cooley Cronys.

Anonymous said...

The poll figures you put out match what I got in an email last week. I don't know if the figures are all that accurate, especially as Danette Meyers is raising a lot of money at the moment, so she should have more than 3%, but I do think that a lot of people have over estimated Trutanich's ability to win. Nobody wants a proven liar as the county's chief prosecutor, so I would not be surprised to see Trutanich defeated either before the primary election, or in the run off when all the candidates will join forces against him.

Anonymous said...

This blog has officially shit the bed with publication of this "poll."

An "unofficial" poll supposedly conducted by an unknown, unnamed, and unidentified "group."

No data for sampling size, margin of error, is left to conclude that the author of this blog simply invented the data.


Anonymous said...

I find the figures disappointing for the DAs running to replace their boss. Clearly Carmen Trutanich is an outsider, but he had the lead only days after announcing his campaign, a small lead, but a lead nevertheless. That lead will grow and grow as people learn about Carmen. The DA candidates have been campaigning for a lot longer, but apparently few people had heard of them. According to Carmen's website, his campaign video has already been seen by 725000 supporters, so his lead in the polls is probably higher now. Carmen is a natural born leader, a man's man and a great guy who is loved by anyone and everyone who get to know the real Nuch. He is the real deal, tough on crime, especially the gangs and at the same time he loves dogs and horses.

Anonymous said...

I agree with 7:21am. It's hypocritical to criticize Trutanich when you are putting out phony information as well.

Both of you are turds. You used to work together, so not surprised.

Anonymous said...

Read 'em an weep guys. Do the math, Jackson will face Trutanich in a run off and he will beat Trutanich in the first debate.

Anonymous said...

10:58 pm is right, Alan Jackson will be the next DA of LA County. Carmen Trutanich will lose the DA race and will be ousted from the City Attorney's Office in 2013. Good riddance.