Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Polls predict Jackson-Trutanich runoff

Polling conducted by political polling consultants Normington Petts (whose client list includes President Barack Obama) shows that the previous poll published here may not be as inaccurate as some comments suggest. There is no clear leader, and despite having an enviable campaign warchest, City Attorney Carmen Trutanich's less than enviable reputation as a misleading, failing career politician places him in a statistical tie with District Attorney candidate Alan Jackson. The poll suggests that a runoff between the two would occur if the primary election were held tomorrow.

This from the Jackson Campaign:

John S. Thomas
Alan Jackson for District Attorney 2012
Tel: (818) 396-6578


The race for District Attorney is largely unformed with no clear front runner. Deputy DA Alan Jackson is statistically tied with Carmen Trutanich despite his spending advantage.

The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 500 registered voters in Los Angeles County who are likely to vote on June 5, 2012. Interviews were conducted February 27-March 1, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

No candidate is known to a majority of voters and as a result the race for District Attorney is wide open. More than half of likely voters have yet to choose a candidate and no single candidate begins with more than 10% of the vote. Including all ten candidates, the race currently stands as follows:

City Attorney Carmen Trutanich is the best known of the ten with 43% name identification. Every other candidate has at least 10 points less name recognition. Typically, a candidate with better name identification enjoys larger vote support based on simply being known to more voters. That is clearly not the case with Trutanich. Perhaps this inability is due to the fact that among those who know Trutanich, his favorable rating is a tepid 35%-34%. In addition to not being particularly well-liked, Trutanich suffers from a net negative job rating at 23% positive and 37% negative. Trutanich has political baggage—a fact of which the voters are already aware.

When voters are given basic biographical information and positives messages about the candidates, the race separates into tiers with Deputy District Attorney Alan Jackson and Carmen Trutanich pulling away from the other candidates. Specifically:

It is important to note that we provided a larger number of positive messages in support of Trutanich than any other candidate in an effort to simulate the fact that his campaign currently has more money. Even in those circumstances, he falls behind to Jackson.

This informed vote indicates that as voters begin to hear from the candidates and make up their minds, that Jackson and Trutanich are likely to be forced into a run-off in November. The presence of Deputy District Attorney Mario Trujillo and Deputy District Attorney Jackie Lacey on the ballot, despite garnering just 24% of the vote combined, makes it extremely difficult for any candidate to achieve a majority in June.

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The original of the Normington Petts poll results received by the Dragnet can be downloaded here.

The results of the poll, released by the Jackson campaign this morning, are understood to have sent the already beleaguered Trutanich campaign into a yet another series of frenetic telephone calls.  Trutanich, already suffering an unprecedented credibility crisis following his lies about non-existent police agency endorsements, illegal Sheriff Baca endorsement, and pay to play YouTubeGate scandal, had to try to explain why his claim to be the "front runner by a mile" was also, apparently false.

LA Times Steve Lopez shames Trutanich for stiffing kids

If you can stay awake long enough to watch all thirteen minutes of Carmen Trutanich's self promoting DA campaign video, which had to be artificially boosted on YouTube to give the appearance that Trutanich has "grass roots support," you might catch same claims about his concern for school kids. But as LA Times columnist Steve Lopez relates in today's LA Times, it seems that Trutanich would rather spend his money on buying YouTube views than honoring his promise to underprivileged school kids.

Lopez, who once wrote with guarded praise of Trutanich's willingness to conduct a demonstration of the effects of marijuana use while driving, has apparently joined the anti-Trutanich tsunami. He is sharply critical of Trutanich's failure to follow through on a $100,000 promise that he made to the very same kind of underprivileged school kids who surrounded him at his swearing in ceremony, which ended with his words "I won't let you down."

About the only thing you can say about Trutanich is that he is consistent; he always lets those foolish enough to believe him down. Lopez's column is further evidence of the veracity of the Normington Petts poll; his negatives far outweigh his campaign warchest, and those who know him best will move heaven and earth not to allow others to be fooled by his empty promises.



Anonymous said...

It is one ethical lapse after another with Trutanich. It would be absolutely humiliating to have this guy as a boss. Reading past comments of how he runs the CA's Office does not paint a good picture. If Trutanich makes it to a run-off I hope and pray that the rest of the DA candidates will unite in opposition of him. Spread the word to your families, friends, neighbors, and every LA voter you can think of: Do NOT vote for Trutanich.

Anonymous said...

There you go with your Cooley Crony spin again with the 3 Cooley cronys. The only thing this biased poll shows is that the voters don't know who the heck Carmen, Alan, Jackie or Mario are. That's it. 9% of the vote with a margin of error of 4.4% means it's anyone's election to win, not that Alan and Carmen are going to be in a runoff give me a break.

Anonymous said...

There you go with your Cooley Crony spin again with the 3 Cooley cronys. The only thing this biased poll shows is that the voters don't know who the heck Carmen, Alan, Jackie or Mario are. That's it. 9% of the vote with a margin of error of 4.4% means it's anyone's election to win, not that Alan and Carmen are going to be in a runoff give me a break.

Anonymous said...

Steve Ipsen received 15% in the last election against Cooley. He will take a lot of votes from Alan and Jackie from people who don't like Cooley no matter who is in the race.

Anonymous said...

Ipsen will be lucky to get 1.5% this time. What you don't say is that Ipsen came third in that election. Second place guy was Albert Robles who got way more than Ipsen without even campaigning and no budget. Neither of them came close to touching Cooley who, despite the crazy comments here, has a reputation with the electorate to be proud of. Trutanich is constantly running away from his reputation, but as the poll shows, and the LA Times says, he can run but he can neither hide nor win.

Anonymous said...

I found out ballot statements are $100,000 for English and $100,000 for Spanish. This means Jackie and Danette will have no money, Jackson and Trujillo will have a little left and Carmen will have cash to throw away. Cooley is going to show up at 5pm on Friday anyway, and file his papers, and everyone else is going to go bye bye. Cooley can't stand the thought of Carmen taking over, which is why her recruited Berger and his top three ninny suck up union busters. So, nothing in this article even matters anyway. If Trujillo were smart, he would run against Antonivich and clean house with his war chest, but he is only good for doing Cooley's bidding.

Anonymous said...

Met News article today has a couple of interesting items in it. First the ADDA lawsuit may be overturned because of ex-parte emails between the heading officer and ADDA supporters. Second, Mario Trujillo has not filed his papers to run. The deadline is Friday and he would not answer calls from the reporter. Looks like Mario may be dropping out ...

Anonymous said...

Rumor downtown is that Trujillo will drop out and run for City Attorney, He can win that easy (like Delgadillo) and it will help Lacey and Jackson by attacks on Trutanich from every angle. Ace Smith will have a field day,

Anonymous said...

Oh gee, Jackson created this webpage showing a bunch of statistical mumbo-jumbo to try to fool voters into thinking Jackson is a serious candidate so that he can get campaign contributions. So who is the real liar? Jackson. Only Trutanich has led prosecutions that have truly served the interests of the people of LA.