Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Trutanich tanks in polls, Feuer, Smith rise to runoff

Two weeks ago Survey USA published a poll showing City Attorney Carmen Trutanich leading the polls 10 points clear of his closest rival. But that was before challengers Greg Smith and Mike Feuer started spending some of the money they have in their campaign warchests.

Two weeks later, a second Survey USA poll shows a very different picture.

The graph was produced using the results of SurveyUSA's two polls.
The trends speak for themselves; Trutanich is heading to 3rd place.
Trutanich has tanked, dropping 4 points, while rivals Mike Feuer and Greg Smith have risen, 6 points to Feuer, and 5 to Smith. It's a trend that is likely to continue as both the Feuer and Smith campaigns have funds on hand to get their message out, while Trutanich is cash-strapped, unable to raise the kind of money to compete for voters' attention. Trutanich and Feuer are now tied at 25% each, with the fast-rising Smith close behind at 18%.

Trutanich's fund raising woes are likely due to his having alienated large numbers of those who originally supported him in 2009. Many were incensed by the way Trutanich gleefully took their money, and then turned his back on them. Others were disgusted at the shameful way Trutanich tried to weasel his way out of his 'Pledge to Serve,' and his subsequent Hindenburg-like DA campaign failure has left the former San Pedro ambulance chaser slip and fall lawyer turned career politician out in the cold, with only a handful of loyalists willing to stuff money in to the paper shredder that is the Trutanich reelection campaign.

With two weeks to go before the primary election, expect the rising trend of Feuer and Smith to continue, with both gaining from the large number of undecided voters. Equally, expect Trutanich's tenuous hold on 25% to fall lower as he not only fails to reach voters, but the local media picks apart his phony claims of trial successes in the face of the staggering $37.4M in trial losses that he suffered in the last quarter of 2012.

Statistically, there are enough undecided votes for both Feuer and Smith to easily eclipse Trutanich, leaving him exactly where he was in June 2012 after the DA primary; nowhere, third place, and out.

The Smith campaign were quick to comment on Trutanich's impending demise, with this press release containing some detailed analysis showing Smith's upward trend:

CONTACT: John S. Thomas
Greg Smith for City Attorney 2013


Los Angeles, February 18th – Today Survey USA released another poll pertaining to the race for City Attorney showing Greg Smith gaining five points from the prior poll 18 days ago. Smith is now at 18% to Carmen Trutanich and Mike Feuer’s 25%. Carmen Trutanich is down 4 percentage points and moving in the wrong direction. With Carmen Trutanich running out of resources to communicate and the Smith campaign ramping up, we are likely to see Trutanich defeated yet again.

Greg Smith has shown the most dramatic and most important movement among voters age 50 and over. This voting bloc is the most reliable and frequent municipal voter. Smith grew 12 points among this bloc, from 8% in the last poll to 20% today.

Smith is also second place and up 5 points among black voters, drawing 22% of that voting bloc.

“Trend lines are what matter, and Smith clearly is moving in the right direction while Trutanich is spiraling downward,” stated Smith’s chief strategist John Thomas.

“One thing is clear: When voters learn about Greg Smith’s credentials fighting discrimination and corruption, they gravitate toward him in dramatic numbers.”

Thomas continued, “Voters voted no on Carmen Trutanich for District Attorney and appear to be headed in that direction again.”

Greg Smith is the first candidate in the race for City Attorney to begin advertising on television. Click to view his 30-second ad, “Fought for me,” featuring public safety personnel Greg represented in cases fighting against discrimination and public corruption.

The mainstay of Greg Smith’s distinguished career as an attorney has been representing public safety officers in cases of willful discrimination, wrongful termination, whistleblowing and racism.

Owner of a private law firm and Vietnam era Veteran, Greg Smith is a top-notch police attorney who has practiced for over 25 years representing members of law enforcement and community members who were victims of discrimination from all over the City. Smith has grown a reputation for being unafraid to take the tough cases and has worked with clients to expose waste, fraud and abuse. He represented one of the early whistleblowers that helped expose the Bell corruption scandal.

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Anonymous said...

A Feuer vs Smith runoff would be good for the city. Obviously, they have two completely different political orientations. The choice for the voters would be, "what do I believe?"

If Trutanich makes it to the runoff, the issue (no matter who the opponent is) would be Trutanich's blunders. The only question would be "how much more of this shit can I take?"

Anonymous said...

This is very bad news for Trutanich. He is getting more and more like the character in your 'downfall of Carmen Trutanich' video, screaming, ranting and raving about ordering his donors to give more money. He doesn't get it, the race is over. There's no more money for him, his own people are bailing on him, and he can't even recycle that ad he ran in 2009 becaue he can't pay for it. Trutanich should be kept away from sharp objects until the election is over, then he can spend some more time with his family.

Anonymous said...

Watching the Nuch campaign is like watching a slo-mo train wreck on YouTube, or a high speed pursuit on tv. You know its not gonna turn out well for Nuch, but you just love watching this asshole get whats coming to him.

Anonymous said...

What am I missing? A career politician (councilman and now a state legislator) who wants another government salary and pension, who has never tried a case versus a courtroom bully who has been a complete embarassment to the Office of the City Attorney, versus a veteran trial lawyer who has established a successful law office. Not too difficult of a choice for me!

Anonymous said...

One candidate has a mole on the police department. He put 500k of "his own" (yeah right) cash in his war chest, for a job that pays 220k. Do you think he has something to gain? He wants to "suffocate gangs." Back to law school for a course in the Constitution. Wants to expand injunctions, which do little, except force gangs to move into new neighborhoods. Letting the fox guard the henhouse would be a HUGE mistake for Los Angeles. Anybody, even Nuch, is better than an idiot from Beverly Hills.