Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Primary Election analysis shows Mike Feuer leading Carmen Trutanich in all categories

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Los Angeles City Attorney candidate Mike Feuer's healthy 14 point lead in the primary election to replace failed DA wannabe Carmen Trutanich spells doom for any hope Trutanich may have had to be reelected. Feuer came within 6 points of winning the primary outright, and but for rival Democrat Greg Smith's robust campaign, which garnered 17 percent of the vote, Feuer would likely be naming members of his transition team now. Nevertheless, the Feuer campaign has released a detailed analysis of the primary election results showing just how much ground Feuer has gained on Trutanich. It's a leading position that is unlikely to change on May 21.


Feuer had a commanding lead amongst LA's diverse community; the results showed that Feuer had succeeded in communicating effectively to all communities to gain their support.


Feuer's lead was especially impressive when analyzed in terms of the age of voters, with the all-important 65+ voters favoring Feuer by more than 20%.

In 'other categories' Feuer's lead contained few surprises. Jewish voters overwhelmingly supported Feuer over Trutanich, as did Democratic Party voters despite Trutanich's attempts to paint himself as a Democrat during his failed DA campaign. Even the 'Decline to States' rejected Trutanich by a comfortable margin.

Perhaps the most telling sign that Los Angelenos have decided to dump Trutanich comes from the analysis of the way the Council Districts voted. Feuer won handily in 13 of the LA's 15 Council Districts, with Trutanich not even securing over 50% of the vote in his home district - CD15.

To add to Trutanich's woes, the LA Times reported that the 'powerful Los Angeles County Federation of Labor has endorsed former lawmaker Mike Feuer for Los Angeles city attorney.'

The endorsement is significant because it will likely be backed up by some significant spending to help Feuer oust Trutanich on May 21. The '600,000-member federation has been a potent force at City Hall and in local elections because it can provide campaign volunteers and urge the workers it represents to vote for its preferred candidates. In some races, it has spent heavily on efforts independent of a candidates campaign, such as when it led an alliance that spent $8.5 million to help elect Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas in 2008.' the LA Times said.

In terms of fundraising, Feuer, who reached the campaign finance limit well before the primary election, has a paper fortune of pledges from donors who promised to support him in the runoff.  The prospect of heavy support from the Federation will likely turn those pledges into hard cash campaign contributions.

Trutanich, on the other hand, was unable to come close to raising anything like the amount Feuer raised in the primary, and now faces an even harder time drumming up support for the runoff. With most of his previous supporters politely telling him they are now 'staying out of it.' Had Trutanich been able to close the gap to Feuer in the primary to somewhere around 10 points, he might have stood a chance, but given his well established negatives and his poor showing in the primary, he will likely fail to raise anything close to the amount of money needed to mount a campaign to be reelected.

Out-voted, out-spent, and out of lies, Trutanich will make history by becoming the first incumbent City Attorney to fail to be reelected.


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