Sunday, March 3, 2013

Trutanich campaign sinking like Titanic

For the second time in two days the LA Times has reported on what looks certain to be the end of Carmen Trutanich's political career.

The campaign of Carmen 'I am a lair' Trutanich is sinking lower and lower in the polls as those likely to vote increasingly recall the many reasons why they voted against him in June 2012.

According to a USC PRICE/LA TIMES poll, Trutanich is in a statistical dead heat with City Attorney candidate Greg Smith, with Mike Feuer leading the race. It's a long long way from Trutanich's early claims to be 20 points ahead of Feuer and shows a continuing trend; Trutanich in a tailspin nosedive, while Smith continues to rise.

40% of voters are said to be undecided. What will make their minds up in the days remaining before Tuesday's election is a matter of speculation, but certainly the number and frequency of campaign communications that will reach voters in the crucial pre-election days is an important factor.

Mike Feuer has reached the limit of permissible expenditure under the City's matching funds rules. A rule he has succeeded in skirting by deferring payment of his campaign consultant. Regardless, he has no more money to spend. His message has been received loud and clear by the party faithful and he has also inflicted some deep and damaging hits on Trutanich, but voters will hear no more from him.

Trutanich never had a viable budget for his campaign, spending most of his money on highly paid consultants who succeeded only in getting a couple of bloggers to endorse the failed DA wannabe. His 'game changing' tv ad has yet to be seen anywhere, other than on YouTube, and the campaign doesn't even have the money to pay people to watch it, as they did in his DA campaign disaster. He would need three times as much money as Feuer and Smith to overcome his considerable negatives, and that isn't going to happen. Trutanich is not just 'in trouble,' as reported by the Times, he is toast.

That leaves Greg Smith who has the money to not only keep up a robust tv and radio campaign, but to actually increase the number of ads voters will see and hear in the days before the election. Smith will be the only candidate voters hear from in Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and judging by the way his campaign has soared so far, he will connect with the undecideds.

The only poll that matters, of course,  is the one we will get around midnight on March 5. Given the way Smith has been moving, he will surpass Trutanich. It's a Feuer-Smith runoff on May 21, and supporters are already lining up behind Smith.



Anonymous said...

BREAKING NEWS: Trutanich has pulled out of the City Attorney race following the sad news that his mother has passed away. Let's put our differences aside and send our sincere condolences to Nuch and his family at this difficult time. He has done the right thing in pulling out.

Anonymous said...

He didn't withdraw.