Monday, April 22, 2013

USC Price poll shows Feuer leading Trutanich by 11 points

The latest poll commissioned by the LA Times with USC Price, shows City Attorney candidate Mike Feuer on target to oust the failed incumbent in the May 21 runoff election.

Feuer's 11 point lead is reflective of past polls and the primary election result, all of which show that the power of incumbency has no value in this race. Feuer has 37% of decided voters, Trutanich 25% and 38% of undecideds are up for grabs.

Rarely has any incumbent been unable to claim a lead, albeit a small one. The LA Times reported that 'The city attorney could still make headway with the substantial number of undecided voters. "The race certainly hasn't been decided," said USC's Dan Schnur, director of the poll. But he is in a tough — and somewhat unusual — position for an incumbent seeking reelection from voters who do not appear to be particularly unhappy, pollsters said.

"It's an uphill road for Trutanich," Schnur said. "This is not an angry, throw-the-bums out electorate, so you would assume [there would be] a better landscape for an incumbent."

What is significant, perhaps, what Schnur did not say - that Trutanich's record of failure and 'truth challenged' statements has cost him support he might otherwise have. Trutanich's disastrous finish in the DA primary marked him indelibly as a liar who has no regard for his own word. Any hope Trutanich may have had that voters would suffer from short term memories was dashed when he finished a distant second place to Mike Feuer in the City Attorney primary.

Although Trutanich has fared better in post election polls, and at least statistically he appears to have a chance at hanging on to the job he did not want when he had his sights set on becoming DA, most experts agree that he is finished in LA politics.

Chris St. Hilaire of M4 told the Times that 'Trutanich was losing among Democrats, independents and Anglo voters "and that's a huge problem for him." A large number of voters who said they were undecided before the March primary election ended up voting for the city attorney, St. Hilaire said. In the May runoff, the new poll shows Trutanich would need to win undecided voters by almost 2 to 1 to overcome Feuer, he said.'

With Trutanich lagging in fundraising and lacking a campaign strategy that seems incapable of doing anything more than firing off ethics complaints, he has no chance at winning the undecided vote by the 2 to 1 margin he needs.

In all likelihood on May 21, in the only poll that matters, Trutanich might convert as many as half of the 38% who are currently undecided, with the other half going to Feuer. But even if Trutanich can rehabilitate his public image to the point were half the undecideds broke for him, that would still mean Feuer finishing with 56% of the vote, and Trutanich losing with 44%. 

A stunned Carmen Trutanich was forced to do the 'Walk of Shame' as his
hopes of using the City Attorney's office as a springboard to the DA's office
were dashed to smithereens by voters who rejected him.
The expectation is that shortly after 9PM on May 21, while most focus will be on the closely contested Mayoral race, the City Attorney race will show Feuer in an unassailable position. Trutanich will likely slip out of the back door at his victory party, rather than be forced to face his supporters and repeat his June 2012 walk of shame.



Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see the troll post about how Berger is secretly behind the USC poll. What sort of incumbent loses reelection by more than 10%? That shit's unreal!!!

Anonymous said...

The only poll that counts is the one on May 21, and that's when you will be eating humble pie.

Carmen Trutanich is surging in the polls having picked up 17 points since the primary. The more that voters see of Nuch and his family the more they are convinced that this natural born leader, with JFK's looks and Bill Clinton's charisma, is the only man who can turn things around in City Hall.

Nuch will win by a landslide on election night, and you better watch out because he will run for DA again and this time he will win. The very first thing he will do is fire you for being a sore loser who wastes county time blogging instead of locking up criminals.

Anonymous said...

@5:17pm. Right on. Trutanich might be able to claw back a few more points before election day, but damn it all, how can anyone seriously think he is going to win?

Lookit, at the end of the day voters have given their verdict on Carmen LieTanich. Twice, it,s not gonna change.

I hope the LA Times has a photographer by the back door of his victory party to catch him creeping out while nobody's looking, like they did with Jack Weiss in 2009. My guess is that as soon as the first results come out, it will be over for him and he'll be running for cover.

Anonymous said...

It's been said before and it needs to be said again. Why is Nuch doing this to himself, his family, and the voters? He could cash in his chips, pull out of the race, hang a shingle, hire some flunkies fresh out of law school, and make big time coin off his name by representing wealthy businessmen who manage to get themselves arrested. He would make money and work alot less. . . . . and we would all sleep easier.

NUCH, I"M A FORMER COLLEAGUE AND I'M TALKING TO YOU. You were never considered a serious candidate for leadership by your colleagues in the DA's Office. You have a name and (now) a resume that includes being the City Attorney (albeit for one term). Your political career is over. All you're doing now is putting us, your family and the voters through hell.

Anonymous said...

Desperate Nuch is even trying to scrape up votes in his home town of San Pedro, where many voters had long ago seen him for what he really is, and the rest of L. A. now knows. In the midst of a heated campaign, he has now somehow found the time to apply for membership reinstatement in the local Elks lodge in hopes of scraping up a few votes from lodge brothers and sisters. Blackballs, anyone?