Monday, June 27, 2016

Results of Judicial Elections Remain Unchanged as Ballots Continue to be Counted

Although the results of the 2016 Primary Election were declared on June 8, 2016, there remained a large number of ballots yet to be counted. Those ballots were either vote by mail ballots received past the deadline, provisional ballots issued at polling stations and subject to verification, or damaged/unclear ballots where, for example, a voter had written 'X' instead of filling the bubble.

KPCC reported that, as of Friday, June 24, 2016 about 605,800 ballots remain to be counted statewide, and the Los Angeles County Registrar Recorder issued a bulletin stating that approximately 175,000 ballots remain to be counted in LA County.

Despite the seemingly high number of uncounted ballots, there is no likelihood that the remaining ballots will change the outcome of the election. As the uncounted ballots are counted (there have been 5 counts or canvases since June 8) the results remain more or less the same. Thus far, approximately 325,000 previously uncounted ballots have been tabulated, and no significant changes have resulted. The remaining 175,000 uncounted ballots cannot, statistically, change this trend.

The only one of the Judicial races where there was some hope of a change was in Seat 42 where Superior Court Commissioner Cyndy Zuzga missed a place in the runoff by 1.5%. However, as the results of the canvases were released, it became clear that there would be no change in that race, indeed, Zuzga's margin increased to approx 1.75%.

The LA County Registrar Recorder has until July 1, 2016 to complete the count and certify the election, at which time detailed results will be available indicating where the various candidates scored the most votes.

As of Friday June 24, 2016, 1,889,065 votes had been counted, representing a turnout of 39.3% of eligible LA County voters.



Anonymous said...

Nothing changed. My predictions stay the same:
11. Archuleta - hard to see her being defeated.
42. Aceves - Molina will max out at 40%.
84. Townsend - easy win.
158. Berger - only prosecutor in this race.

Anonymous said...

@10:54. True, Berger is the only prosecutor in this race. But he will still lose. If he tries to juice his ballot designation with his opportunistic trip from paper shuffler to VIP, the Times and the Met News will crucify him.

Anonymous said...

@2:14PM. Any change in ballot designation would have to be in accordance with Elections Code §13107, which allows the use as a ballot title of “[n]o more than three words designating either the current principal professions, vocations, or occupations of the candidate, or the principal professions, vocations, or occupations of the candidate during the calendar year immediately preceding the filing of nomination documents.”

Assuming a candidate's "principal profession or occupation" has changed, such as by serving as liaison to Homeland Security (to pick a random example), it's hard to see how any editorial board could condemn a candidate for complying with the law in accurately describing their profession or occupation. It's a change you can believe in.

But surely the bigger point is why a candidate who already has the winningest ballot title would want to change it? If you look at the results of the primary, the previous holly grail of ballot titles “Child Molestation Prosecutor” did poorly, as did “Gang Murder/Homicide Prosecutor.”

With even the LA Times admitting to a 10% increase in Violent Crimes, it would seem that voters care more about overall violent crime than those very specific subsets. Berger would be crazy to change horses at this stage.

Anonymous said...

The LA Times published an article on June 1, 2016 basically saying that a "sexier" ballot title could get you elected, or sued. Assuming Berger survives getting sued, it looks like he gets elected. It is time to change the Elections Code as suggested by both the Times and Roger Grace at the Met News. What is strange is that given their condemnation of these sleazy ballot title tactics, they both also endorsed Berger. Go figure.